RBA delivers consecutive rate hikes in 2026
The RBA has reverted to raising the official cash rate to stem inflation as its rate went back up to 4.10% today.
Announcing the news, the RBA acknowledged that another round of restrictive action needed to be taken following February’s 0.25% increase.
‘Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures.
‘In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.
‘Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen,’ said the RBA in its statement.
So, after three very welcome rate cuts in 2025, borrowers across the country face a return to higher repayments once again.
And this increase in rates trend may continue.
Minutes from February’s RBA meeting revealed concern that inflation could prove “more persistent” than earlier forecasts suggested.
What’s more, as the RBA notes on more than one occasion in today’s statement, the current conflict in the Middle East is now sending oil prices into a spin.
It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank has rarely hiked at consecutive meetings, opting instead to watch how changes ripple through households and businesses. Which makes today’s news a clear signal of intent from Martin Place – and this may continue.
The Commonwealth Bank experts expect another lift, tipping the cash rate to go back up to 4.35% in May.
Looking at the domestic numbers, the current inflation figures show that headline CPI held at 3.8% in January, unchanged from December.
Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred underlying measure, edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%.
So, both measures are still above the RBA’s preferred 2–3% range.
Australia’s Reserve Bank confirmed that there is a ‘material risk’ that inflation will remain above target for longer than previously anticipated.
So, no doubt there’ll be an appetite at board level to keep inflation in check.
‘Globally, the conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions,’ explained the RBA.
‘A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations.’
Interestingly, Canstar data shows that 27 lenders have hiked at least one fixed-rate home loan over the last fortnight.
If you would like to review your home loan arrangements, contact Mortgage Broker Group.
We can assist with tips on how to uncover lower rates, boost your savings, consolidate other debts, and take the pressure off increases in household prices.
Mortgage Broker Group operates nationwide, and our service is 100% free to you (although your lender will likely apply their normal fees and charges to any loan you take out).