Rates remain steady but cuts tipped for 2024
Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate at 4.35% following its second board meeting on monetary policy in 2024.
Almost all analysts predicted today’s announcement, with the Central Bank explaining that inflation was ‘moderating in line with the RBA’s latest forecasts’, following the new format of a two-day monetary policy meeting that wrapped up today.
‘The headline monthly CPI indicator was steady at 3.4 per cent over the year to January,’ noted the RBA, ‘with momentum easing over recent months, driven by moderating goods inflation.’
As inflation continues to moderate – though still above the RBA target range of 2–3% – the most-recent rate rise was November 2023.
Inflation currently sits at 4.1% – a significant drop from the peak in December 2022 peak of 7.8%. This is fuelling hopes of a rate cut this year with analysts at Westpac believing inflation will be down to 3.1% by September 2025.
With this in mind, AMP’s deputy chief economist, Diana Mousina believes three rate cuts in 2024 are on the cards. However, KPMG’s chief economist Brendan Rynne predicts that the RBA will cut rates “sooner and faster” than many think.
Backing up the calls for rate cuts is economic data that shows unemployment is set to rise to around 4.5% this year (up from 3.5% last year).
Furthermore, last week’s GDP growth showed Australia’s growth continues to be weak. In fact, some analysts believe the RBA has gone too far with rate hikes, as household spending continues to drop.
Of concern also are delinquency rates. NAB, for instance, took a $193 million loss from mortgage arrears in Q4 of 2023.
With this in mind, the RBA added a cautious note today, saying that while there are encouraging signs that inflation is moderating, ‘the economic outlook remains uncertain.
‘The December quarter national accounts data confirmed growth has slowed. Household consumption growth remains particularly weak amid high inflation and the rise in interest rates.’
The RBA forecast inflation to return to the target range of 2–3 per cent in 2025, and to the midpoint in 2026.
As for home loan rates in the last month, RateCity data shows that 29 lenders have cut at least one fixed rate, while four have increased fixed rates.
On the other hand, 13 lenders have reduced at least one variable rate and 19 have upped variable rates.
If you would like to review your home loan arrangements, contact Mortgage Broker Group.
We can assist with tips on how to uncover lower rates, boost your savings, consolidate other debts and take the pressure off increases in household prices.
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